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汽车厂商增产 推动美国经济复苏(双语)

2011/08/03  来源: 互联网  字体:  打印

  A resurgent auto industry has weathered the supply-chain hitches that stifled production during the spring and is poised to double the pace of U.S. growth in the third quarter, according to some estimates. But that may not be enough to help beleaguered consumers and businesses get a flagging recovery back on track.

  据一些估计数字显示,复苏的汽车业已经度过了春季令生产受到抑制的供应链问题,三季度美国汽车业的增速有望提高一倍。不过,这可能不足以帮助陷入困境的消费者和企业使乏力的复苏恢复势头。

  The gross domestic product report due Friday from the Commerce Department is expected to show the economy grew at a 1.8% annual rate in the second quarter, down from 1.9% in the first quarter and the slowest pace in a year, according to economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires.

  美国商务部将于周五公布国内生产总值(GDP)报告。据道琼斯通讯社调查的经济学家预测,二季度美国经济年化增速将为1.8%,较一季度的1.9%有所下降,也是一年来最低的。

  The pace of the economy in the spring was a disappointment, caused largely by shortages of key automobile parts following Japan's earthquake and tsunami. Federal Reserve figures show that U.S. auto plants cut back motor vehicle production 5.9% in the second quarter from the first quarter -- enough to significantly slow the economy.

  春季美国经济的增速令人失望,主要是因为日本地震海啸后主要汽车部件的短缺。美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)的数据显示,二季度美国汽车生产较一季度减产5.9%,足以令经济增速严重放缓。

  With supply chains in better order, auto production is bouncing back. Toyota Motor Corp. has said it expects its North American production to return to normal this month. Volkswagen AG is ramping up production at a new plant in Chattanooga, Tenn. General Motors Co. is in the process of adding a third shift at an assembly plant in Flint, Mich.

  在供应链状况有所好转的情况下,汽车生产开始恢复。丰田汽车(Toyota Motor Corp.)说,预计该公司在北美的生产本月将恢复正常。大众汽车(Volkswagen AG)开始提高田纳西州查塔努加(Chattanooga)一家新建工厂的产量。通用汽车(General Motors Co.)则在为密歇根州弗林特(Flint)一家组装厂增设第三个班次的过程中。

  The jump in car manufacturing should filter into employment and spending as well. As auto production picks up, then, so could jobs and wages -- which in turn could help consumer spending. In an optimistic scenario, that might create a scenario where overall spending and hiring are feeding on one another, and putting the economy on the path to stronger growth.

  汽车生产的大幅增加应该也会促进就业和支出。随着汽车生产的好转,就业岗位可能会增加、工资可能会上涨,进而可能帮助消费者支出。在乐观的情况下,这可能形成一种良性循环,整体支出和就业互相促进,推动经济更强劲地增长。

  But the economy may be too weak for such a virtuous circle to take hold. Auto sales were sluggish in May and June, in part because the disasters in Japan led to fewer cars on dealer lots, but also because higher gasoline prices and worries over the job market made consumers less willing to spend.

  不过,经济可能过于疲弱,难以令这样一个良性循环站住脚跟。5月和6月,汽车销售疲软,一方面是因为日本的灾难导致经销商库存的汽车减少,另一方面是因为汽油价格的上涨以及对就业市场的担忧削弱了消费者支出的意愿。

  Indeed, the sluggish sales prompted some auto makers to rein in production plans a bit for the third quarter, noted J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli. He forecast that GDP will increase at a 2.5% rate in the third quarter, and that auto production will lift growth by between a half and full percentage point. “It's still certainly going to be a positive,” he said.

  实际上,摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)经济学家费洛里(Michael Feroli)指出,疲弱的销售促使一些汽车厂商三季度小幅缩减生产计划。他预测,三季度GDP将以2.5%的速度增长,汽车生产将使经济增速获益0.5至1个百分点。他说,汽车生产仍然肯定会推动经济增长。

  The gain may be ephemeral, however, as fallout from the housing bust and the recession persists.

  不过,经济增速的提高可能是短暂的,因为楼市泡沫破裂和衰退的后果依然持续难消。

  "I don't think the bounce back in auto production in and of itself is going to mean that much," said Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius. "It's not going to be able to carry the third quarter."

  高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家哈祖斯(Jan Hatzius)说,我认为,汽车生产的复苏本身并没有太大的意义。这将无法影响三季度。

  Mr. Hatzius pointed out that data so far for July, including sharply lower consumer sentiment figures, suggest the quarter has gotten off to a poor start. His takeaway is that while temporary factors such as supply-chain disruptions have hurt the economy, they can't explain all of what's going on.

  哈祖斯指出,7月份至今的数据显示三季度开局不利,其中包括大幅下滑的消费者信心数据。他的解释是,尽管供应链受到干扰等暂时的因素损害了经济,却并不是造成经济处于现在这种局面的唯一原因。

  He suspects the underlying problem is that badly damaged balance sheets have made it more difficult for households to adjust to shocks that they used to absorb readily.

  他猜测根本的问题是受到严重损害的资产负债状况增大了家庭适应冲击的难度,而过去他们很容易消化这类冲击。

  When gasoline prices go up, for example, people can't as easily tap into savings or borrow to cover the higher cost, so they quickly cut back on other items.

  举例来讲,汽油价格上涨时,人们无法像过去那样轻松地动用存款或借款支付更高的成本,所以他们很快会削减其他项目上的支出。

  That lack of flexibility is damping consumer spending, which in turn is making businesses less willing to make new hires. The result is an economy that, despite the occasional glimmer of hope, can't grow very fast.

  这种缺乏弹性的状况开始打击消费者支出,进而削弱了企业招聘新人的意愿。结果就造成经济无法很快增长,尽管偶尔出现微弱的希望。

  "The economy is just weaker and it's going to stay weaker,"said Mr. Hatzius. "That's the unfortunate conclusion here."

  哈祖斯说,经济只是变得更加疲弱,并将保持更加疲弱的状态。这就是我们得出的不幸结论。

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