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经济持续复苏的三大要素（Three Keys to Sustainable Recovery）
美国就业情况报告好于预期，同时有迹象显示制造业也开始恢复活力，经济学家们由此相信经济复苏即将到来。但一个大问题依然存在：复苏是否可持续。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的伯纳（Richard Berner）和格瑞劳（David Greenlaw）在不久前的一份研究报告中列出了经济持续增长的三大要素。
1. 信贷市场日渐放松。随着雷曼（Lehman）倒闭后的恐慌渐渐平息，各家银行的放贷意愿又开始增强。伯纳和格瑞劳说，当前形势正从恶性循环转向良性循环。虽然贷款损失仍然存在，尤其是在抵押贷款方面，但他们预期收紧信贷条件的银行会越来越少，将会有更多的资金进入信贷系统。
2. 刺激措施正在发挥作用。政府的刺激计划在危机正当中时总是加码最重的，更多蓄势待发的项目以及全国性和地方性建设项目将在今年年底和明年启动。这就意味着更多的经济产出以及与此相关的更多就业机会。
3.去库存化活动减少。相对于销售额，库存量仍然过高。但这并不意味着生产完全停滞。只要各公司增产的速度低于需求增长，他们就可以继续减少库存，同时促进经济增长。
虽然“旧车换现金”项目带来了强劲需求，但消费前景仍然存在不确定性。但即便消费下降，经济还是可以继续增长，避免再度陷入衰退。只不过别指望经济能实现飞速扩张。
Following a better-than-expected employment report and indications that the manufacturing sector is beginning to revive， economists have become more confident that recovery is coming. But the big questions remains： is a recovery sustainable. In a recent research report， Richard Berner and David Greenlaw of Morgan Stanley outline three keys to sustained growth.
1. Credit markets are loosening up. As the post-Lehman panic subsides banks are becoming more willing to lend again. Berner and Greenlaw say the cycle is moving from 'vicious to virtuous.' Despite continuing loan losses， especially in mortgages， they expect that fewer banks are tightening credit conditions and more money is on its way through the system.
2. Stimulus is coming online. The government's stimulus package was always designed to be heavier in the middle， and more shovel-ready projects and state and local construction will come online at the end of this year and into next. That means more output and more jobs associated with that output.
3. Reduced inventory liquidation. Inventories are still elevated when compared to sales. But that doesn't mean that output has to completely stall. As long as companies raise production less than demand they can continue to draw down inventories while contributing to growth.
Despite strong demand for the cash-for-clunkers program， the outlook for the consumer continues to be uncertain. But even with reduced consumption， the economy can continue to grow and avoid a double-dip recession. Just don't expect blockbuster expansion.
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