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韩国经济二季度增幅创五年多来之最(South Korea Economy Snaps Out of Stupor)

来源: 华尔街日报 IN-SOO NAM 编辑: 2009/07/27 09:15:55  字体:

  韩国经济第二季度表现出色,创下了5年多来的最快增速;外界由此预计,亚洲第四大经济体韩国的复苏是可持续的。

  但韩国央行警告称,鉴于韩国经济对出口的依赖程度,今年下半年经济形势很大程度上仍不明朗。韩国1万亿美元经济总量中,出口占据了一半的比重。

  Associated Press韩国首尔的一家鞋铺准备开门营业,照片摄于2009年4月24日不过,这种强劲表现以及近期的诸多证据表明,亚洲经济体可能正在好转,它们在当前全球金融危机中最糟糕的时刻已经过去。中国上周公布了强劲的经济增长数据。

  韩国央行周五早间公布,经季节性因素调整,截至6月30日的3个月,韩国国内生产总值(GDP)较上一季度增长2.3%.今年第一季度韩国经济增速仅为0.1%.

  这是韩国经济自2003年第四季度增长2.6%以来的最快增速。

  韩国经济第二季度较上年同期下滑2.5%,降幅低于第一季度的4.2%.

  韩国经济当季表现与韩国央行本月早些时候公布的初步预计一致,基本符合道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)的调查预期。该调查预计,第二季度韩国经济较上季度增长2.4%,较上年同期下滑2.5%.

  韩国央行经济统计部门负责人Kim Myung-kee在新闻发布会上表示,今年第二季度产品出口明显回升,而国内需求开始积聚动能。

  当季出口较上季度增长14.7%,第一季度为下滑3.4%.私人支出增长3.3%,增速快于第一季度的0.4%.

  资本投资增长8.4%,同样推动了经济增长,第一季度为下滑11.2%.

  韩国央行表示,增长前景很大程度上取决于出口表现。

  Kim表示,国内就业市场依然脆弱,美国经济仍然面临着双重下挫。出口增长将在很大程度上决定韩国经济的复苏步伐。

  经济学家对韩国经济的评估较为乐观。

  摩根士丹利负责研究的副总裁林琰(Sharon Lam)表示,随着全球需求继续好转,韩国出口很有可能复苏步伐快于其他国家。他说,韩国经济将从中国经济的强劲复苏中受益,因为韩国是中国第二大进口来源。

  中国上周公布,第二季度经济较上年同期增长7.9%,增速快于第一季度的6.1%.去年韩国GDP中,对中国的出口占到了12%.

  韩国政府将今年将近65%的预算投在了上半年,意在提振经济增长。

  韩国央行已经连续五个月将基准利率维持在2%的历史低位。去年10月至今年2月,韩国央行累积减息了325个基点。

  大多数经济学家预计,今年余下时间韩国央行会维持政策利率不变。

  韩国央行本月早些时候表示,预计2009年韩国经济将收缩1.6%,此前预期为收缩2.4%.韩国经济去年增长了2.2%.

  The South Korean economy roared back to life in the second quarter to put up its best quarterly performance in more than five years, raising hopes that the recovery in Asia's fourth-largest economy is sustainable.

  The central bank, however, cautioned that the outlook for the second half of the year is largely uncertain, given the country's reliance on exports, which account for half of the $1-trillion economy.

  Still, the performance added to recent evidence that Asian economies may be turning the corner and past their worst point of the current global financial downturn. Last week, China unveiled stellar growth figures for its economy.

  Earlier Friday, the Bank of Korea said that gross domestic product in the three months ended June 30 rose a seasonally adjusted 2.3% from a quarter earlier. That compares with growth of just 0.1% in the first quarter.

  The performance was the best since the fourth quarter of 2003, when GDP grew 2.6% from a quarter earlier.

  From a year earlier, the economy shrank 2.5% after contracting 4.2% on year in the first quarter.

  The performance matched the central bank's initial estimate earlier this month and was also largely in line with a Dow Jones Newswires poll that had predicted a 2.4% on-quarter rise and 2.5% on-year decline.

  'Exports of goods rebounded significantly, while domestic demand began gaining momentum in the second quarter,' Kim Myung-kee, a director-general at the central bank's Economic Statistics Department, said at a media briefing.

  Export volume jumped 14.7% on quarter, following a 3.4% decline in the first quarter. Private spending gained 3.3%, accelerating from a gain of 0.4% in the quarter earlier.

  A 8.4% increase in capital investment - reversing a 11.2% decline in the first quarter - also contributed to growth.

  Going forward, the central bank said that much would depend on export performance.

  'The domestic jobs market is fragile and the U.S. economy still faces a double dip,' said Kim. 'Growth in exports will largely determine the pace of a rebound in the Korean economy.'

  Economists seemed more upbeat in their assessment of the economy.

  'As global demand continues to improve……Korea's exports are well positioned to recover faster than others……,' said Sharon Lam, Vice President, Research, at Morgan Stanley. 'Korea stands to benefit from any strong rebound in China, as it is China's second-largest import source.'

  Last week, China said its economy grew 7.9% in the second quarter from a year earlier, accelerating from growth of 6.1% in the first quarter. Exports to China accounted for 12% of Korea's GDP last year.

  The South Korean government has frontloaded almost 65% of its main budget in the first half of this year to boost the economy.

  For its part, the central bank has kept its key interest rate steady at a record low of 2% for five months now. It slashed the rate by 325 basis points between October and February.

  Most economists expect the central bank to stand pat on the policy rate for the rest of the year.

  Earlier this month, the BOK said it expects the economy to contract 1.6% for the whole of 2009, compared with an earlier forecast for a shrinkage of 2.4%. The economy grew 2.2% last year.

责任编辑:vivien

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