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美联储该放手时且放手(双语)

来源: 互联网 编辑: 2011/08/11 15:52:29  字体:

  Big Ben went small. And that is probably a good thing.

  曾经推出各种大手笔政策的贝南克(Ben Bernanke),如今只有一些小动作。这可能是件好事。

  Rather than come in guns blazing in the wake of Monday's market rout, the Federal Reserve chose at its Tuesday meeting to hold off on extreme measures, notably the resumption of purchases of government bonds that some investors had hoped for. Instead, Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Fed opted only to change language for how long it expects to keep interest rates near zero until 'at least mid-2013'; previously, the Fed only said rates would be kept low for "an extended period."

  周一市场重挫之后,美联储(Federal Reserve)没有拿出暴风骤雨般的行动,而是在周二会议上暂缓推出极端措施,特别是一些投资者曾经期待的恢复购买国债之举。美联储及其主席贝南克决定只是将预计保持近零利率多长时间的措辞,从原先的“较长时期”变更为“至少到2013年中期”。

  As unprecedented as this was, it still fell short of what some in markets expected. Not that it immediately mattered -- stocks soared. That was likely due to the prospect of rates staying low for so long, but also possibly because the Fed didn't rule out more bond buys down the road.

  这种改变固然前所未有,但它仍然没有达到部分市场人士的预期。这并不是说它没有立即发挥作用──股市立即飙升。股市上涨可能是因为利率有望如此长久地保持在低水平,但也可能是因为美联储没有排除将来再次收购债券的可能。

  The Fed did raise more concerns about the economy and what is causing growth to falter, noting temporary factors such as Japan's natural disasters, "appear to account for only some of the recent weakness in economic activity."

  美联储确实对经济状况以及增长减缓的原因表达了更多的担忧。它指出,日本自然灾害等暂时性因素似乎只是近期经济活动走软的部分原因。

  Even so, economic conditions are hardly dire enough for the Fed to again prop up markets. With fewer arrows left in its quiver, it will have to bide its time. This is especially the case given three Fed members dissented from the statement because they thought the 'extended period' language shouldn't have been changed. This shows the Fed is divided at the moment over the growth outlook and what should be done about it.

   即便如此,也很难说经济环境的恶劣达到了要让美联储再度救市的地步。由于囊中之箭越来越少,它只能静候时机。考虑到美联储三位成员认为“较长时期”的措辞不应改变、所以不同意声明内容,那就更应如此。三位成员的不同意见说明,目前美联储内部对于增长前景和应该采取什么对策存在分歧。

  Moving too fast also holds other risks. A quick reversal on asset purchases would have looked schizophrenic given that just two months ago it opted to let its previous, $600 billion bond-buying program expire as planned. It also isn't clear how much impact additional bond buying would have on the economy and job growth. Even if the last bond-buying program helped -- an issue still the subject of much debate -- the Fed risks getting less and less bang for its buck.

  行动过快还存在其他风险。如果迅速回调资产购买计划,那就像是精神分裂一样,因为在两个月之前,美联储还决定让前一个规模为6,000亿美元的债券购买行动按原计划到期。再次购买债券能够对经济增长和就业增长产生多大的影响也不清楚。即使上一个债券购买计划起到了作用(这个话题仍然需要讨论),美联储的政策效力也有可能越来越弱。

  Plus, banks aren't in the kind of dire straits that necessitate central-bank action. The financial system is awash in liquidity and credit markets are functioning.

  另外,银行的境况还不至于差到需要央行采取行动。金融系统流动性充裕,信贷市场运转正常。

  Perhaps the biggest reason for the Fed to hold back: By not riding to the markets' rescue, it may put more pressure on politicians in Washington. Just as markets have become overly reliant on the Fed, Washington also has become too confident that even if it dithers, Bernanke & Co. will do the heavy lifting.

  美联储按兵不动的最大原因或许是这样的:自己不救市,可能就会给华盛顿政治家施加更多压力。正如市场已经对美联储产生过度依赖,华盛顿也是过于相信,即使自己犹豫不决,贝南克那帮人也会挑起大梁。

  If the Fed put the ball back in the government's court, politicians may feel added impetus to deal with thorny economic issues. After all, as Mr. Bernanke has repeatedly said, the Fed can only do so much.

  如果美联储把球踢给政府,政治家们可能就会更加感受到应对棘手经济问题的紧迫性。毕竟正如贝南克常言,美联储能做的也就这么多了。

  True, the Fed isn't likely to stand by if deflation again becomes a threat. But for now, the Fed is right to let markets find their own footing and demand the government does its part to shore up the economy.

  是的,如果通货紧缩威胁再度显现,美联储不太可能袖手旁观。但从目前来看,美联储任由市场自己站稳脚跟、要求政府履行振兴经济的职责,实为恰当之举。

我要纠错】 责任编辑:雨非

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