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中国数据可靠性连累国有资产遭抛售(双语)

来源: 互联网 编辑: 2011/10/13 19:26:27  字体:

  China's sovereign-wealth fund stepped in Monday to buy shares of the country's battered banks, which have been caught in a selloff that analysts say partly reflects a loss of trust in the integrity of government statistics and corporate earnings.

  周一,中国主权财富基金介入市场,买入陷入困境的中国国有银行股票。近来国有银行股遭市场抛售,分析师说这部分反映了市场对政府公布的统计数据以及公司盈利数据的完整性失去信任。

  The skepticism of investors comes as China has become increasingly exposed to global markets, largely through stock listings of its state-owned enterprises and other companies, but more recently through its currency and bonds, which are now traded in Hong Kong.

  Agence France-Presse/Getty Images中央汇金增持了了3,907万股农业银行股票。投资者出现疑虑正值中国越来越多地接触全球市场,以往这主要是通过中国国有企业和其它企业的股票上市实现的,但最近却主要是通过在香港交易的人民币和债券来实现的。

  The market rout began among a group of small U.S.-listed companies accused of fraud and quickly has spread to other Chinese assets available to overseas investors. Stock investors are fleeing China's state banking giants partly on fears that they aren't coming clean about their bad-debt problems after several years of blow-out lending.

  在美上市的一群被指欺诈的小企业股票首先崩溃,然后迅速蔓延至海外投资者能够购买的其它中国资产。股市投资者逃离中国大型国有银行股的部分原因是投资者担心在信贷出现多年井喷式增长之后,中国的国有银行没有如实公开他们的坏账问题。

  Investors also are selling high-flying Internet companies such as Baidu Inc. (BIDU, K3SD.SG) as there are questions about hidden ownership risks. And they are fleeing property stocks on fear that Beijing's inflation-fighting efforts have left developers and buyers in hock to illegitimate financiers.

  投资者也在卖出百度(Baidu Inc.)这类非常成功的互联网公司,因为这些企业存在所有权风险隐患。他们还远离地产股,因为担心中国政府抗击通胀的举措会让举债的开发商和购房人求助于非法的资金提供者。

  Sentiment has even turned more cautious on China's currency, the yuan. It faced rare downward pressure in recent weeks as some investors bought the safe-haven U.S. dollar and others worried about potential for a slowing Chinese economy. On Monday, though, the yuan rose to a high, which traders attributed to easing concerns about a shortage of dollars in the market.

  市场对人民币的看法变得更为谨慎。最近几周,随着一些投资者买入避险货币美元,以及其它投资者担心中国经济增速可能放缓,人民币面临罕见的下行压力。但在周一,人民币汇率走高,交易员将此归因为投资者对市场上美元短缺的担忧减轻。

  Enthusiasm is waning for Chinese bonds issued in Hong Kong--so-called dim sum bonds--that Western bankers have been touting to their corporate customers as the next big financial investment story.

  市场对在香港发行的人民币计价债券(即所谓“点心债券”)的热情正在减弱。西方银行家们一直在向他们的公司客户兜售“点心债券”,将其描绘成下一个重大金融投资产品。

  Analysts say that after years of downplaying risk, many investors now appear to be fearful that other aspects of China's economy may also not be as they seem. They are questioning the credibility of official numbers that show continued rapid growth in China's economy, one of the last remaining major engines of the global economy.

  分析师们说,多年来有意淡化风险之后,许多投资者现在似乎开始担心中国经济的其它方面可能并非像看上去的那样。投资者质疑官方数据的可靠性:官方数据显示,作为全球经济剩下的为数不多的主要增长引擎之一,中国经济还在继续快速增长。

  Pessimism about China's prospects has grown so deep that some investors are betting against not only its stocks but its government debt, which by all accounts is safe. The net value of outstanding credit-default swaps on debt issued by the Chinese government nearly doubled, to $8.34 billion at the end of September from a year earlier, according to data from the New York-based Depository Trust & Clearing Corp.

  市场对中国前景的悲观情绪日益加重,以至于一些投资者不光看跌中国股市,还押注中国政府债也将下跌。市场普遍认为中国政府债是安全资产。总部位于纽约的存管信托及结算公司(Depository Trust & Clearing Corp.)的数据显示,截至9月底,中国政府所发行债券的信贷违约掉期(CDS)未执行部分的净值同比几乎增长了一倍,达到83.4亿美元。

  “People don't trust the government statistics, they don't trust corporate earnings, they don't trust from government officials,” said Daiwa Securities Ltd. economist Sun Mingchun. “Investors are saying, I don't know who I should listen to.”

  大和证券公司(Daiwa Securities Ltd.)经济学家孙明春说,投资者不相信政府公布的统计数据,不相信公司盈利数据,不相信政府官员的评论。投资者在说,我不知道该听谁的。

  Skepticism about Chinese statistics isn't new, and over the years Chinese stocks listed overseas have been hit by periodic bouts of selling as waves of China euphoria turned to anxiety about the government's ability to sustain rapid growth.

  对中国统计数据的质疑早已有之。此外,多年来,随着看好中国的热潮转变成对政府保持经济快速增长能力的担忧,海外上市中国公司的股票一直受到周期性抛售的冲击。

  Many Chinese and foreign economists still broadly forecast Chinese economic growth of around 9% this year--slower than in recent years but still a cracking pace--and say the selloff is overblown. They are confident that banks could cope with a spike in nonperforming loans, and if necessary the government could bail them out. Its stash of $3 trillion-plus in foreign-exchange reserves shows its firepower.

  很多中外经济学家仍普遍预测今年中国经济增速将在9%左右,虽然低于近年来的水平,但仍是很快的速度;此外,这些经济学家还认为抛售过度了。他们相信,银行能够应对不良贷款的激增,如果必要,政府还能出手相救。中国逾3万亿美元的外汇储备显示了它的这种实力。

  China keeps a tight control on capital flows across its borders, and foreigners have only limited access to stocks and bonds listed on mainland Chinese markets. That means an investor selloff overseas doesn't pose a direct risk to China's domestic economy.

  中国严格控制跨境资本流动,外国人只有有限的途径投资在中国内地市场发行的股票和债券。这意味着海外的抛售不会给中国国内经济带来直接风险。

  Still, the sudden turn in investor sentiment could be costly for both China and the global economy. At stake is the prestige of a rising economic superpower that aspires to turn its companies into global leaders, and its currency into a rival to the U.S. dollar and the euro.

  尽管如此,投资者情绪的突然转变可能使中国和全球经济付出高昂代价。这关系到一个日益崛起的超级经济大国的声望,这个国家渴望使本土公司成为全球领跑者,使本国货币成为能与美元和欧元比肩的货币。

  China's private sector--most notably its Internet companies--has long relied on international markets to raise funds, since domestic stock exchanges and the banks are primarily geared toward serving state companies. The tumble in banks' shares complicates their options to raise additional funds if their profits fall short.

  由于中国国内证券交易所和银行主要为国有企业服务,中国私营企业(尤其是互联网公司)一直依靠国际市场筹集资金。银行类股的暴跌使他们在一旦利润不足时筹集更多资金的选择减少。

  Global investors are exposed to the world's second-largest economy as never before. Chinese companies dominate new listings in Hong Kong and have a big role in New York. China's voracious demand for raw materials as it rolls out infrastructure and builds new cities helps set the price of everything from copper to emerging-market currencies.

  全球投资者前所未有地暴露在世界第二大经济体中国的风险中。中国公司在香港新上市股中占了主导地位,在纽约也发挥着很大的作用。随着中国推出基础设施项目、建造新城市,中国对原材料的巨大需求帮助设定了从铜到新兴市场货币等各类商品的价格。

  The slide in confidence in China investments began to pick up momentum late last year when investors who had taken short positions in overseas-listed small Chinese stocks--and thus stood to gain if the stocks fell--started sharing with the public their on-the-ground research. Most notably, Shanghai-based Muddy Waters LLC posted highly readable reports online that used photographs, interviews and government documents to support its claims that some companies had falsified key contracts and customers and vastly overstated revenues.

  对中国投资信心的下滑在去年底开始升温,当时做空海外上市中国小型股(在股价下挫时有望获利)的投资者开始公布他们的实地研究结果。尤其值得注意的是,位于上海的公司Muddy Waters LLC在网上公布了可读性很强的报告,报告使用照片、采访和政府文件来支持其观点,即一些公司伪造重要合约和客户、极大地夸大收益。

  Dozens of small Chinese companies that listed their shares in the U.S. through an opaque backdoor method--buying an already-listed shell company--have since been delisted or suspended while there are investigations by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. That has spooked investors in dozens more Chinese companies.

  数十家通过不透明的后门方法(即收购已上市的空壳公司)在美国上市的中国小企业此后纷纷被勒令摘牌退市或暂停交易,同时美国证券交易委员会(U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission)展开了调查。这令另外数十家中国公司的投资者不安起来。

  “The returns were so good for so many years” that investors “just didn't care,” said Shaun Rein, managing director of Shanghai-based China Market Research Group, a research firm. Mr. Rein says that hedge funds suddenly account for around half of his business. “The fear of accounting fraud is very real,” he said.

  市场研究公司中国市场研究集团(China Market Research Group)的董事总经理雷小山(Shaun Rein)说,这些年来,回报一直非常好,投资者已经不在乎了。雷小山又说,如今对冲基金已经占了业务的一半,人们对会计欺诈非常担心。

  Before Monday's share purchases by the sovereign-wealth fund, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (IDCBY, 1398.HK, 601398.SH), the country's largest bank by assets, had dropped 22% since the end of August, and Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. (ACGBF, 1288.HK, 601288.SH) had fallen 31%. The Hang Seng, Hong Kong's benchmark index, fell 14% over the same period.

  在中国主权财富基金于本周一购入股份之前,中国资产总值最高的银行中国工商银行股份有限公司(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.)的股价自八月底以来已经下跌了22%,中国农业银行股份有限公司(Agricultural Bank of China Ltd.)的股价已经下跌了31%。香港恒生指数同期下跌了14%。

  In Monday's market intervention, Central Huijin Investment, the domestic investment arm of the $400 billion sovereign-wealth fund, said it had started buying shares in those two banks, plus Bank of China Ltd. (BACHY, 3988.HK, 601988.SH) and China Construction Bank Corp. (CICHY, 0939.HK, 601939.SH), to help stabilize their prices. The fund, already a major shareholder in the state banks, said it would continue to buy in the open market. Huijin previously stepped in to buy Chinese bank stocks as part of a year-long effort to prop up the domestic stock market after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

  对于在周一进行的市场干预,总值达4,000亿美元的主权财富基金旗下国内投资业务子公司中央汇金投资有限责任公司(Central Huijin Investment Co., 简称:中央汇金)表示,已经开始买入上述两家银行的股票,并且还买入了中国银行股份有限公司(Bank of China Ltd.)和中国建设银行股份有限公司(China Construction Bank co.)的股票,以帮助这些银行的股价回稳。本已是这几家国有银行的主要股东的该基金表示,还将继续在公开市场买入股份。2008年雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭后,中央汇金就曾在一年之内,买入中国的银行类股票,以提振中国股市。

  The intervention sent Chinese bank shares up and spurred a 1.6% late-day rebound in the Hong Kong market. Huijin bought Shanghai-listed shares of the banks, announcing its purchases after the Shanghai market closed but when Hong Kong was still trading. The banks are dual-listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

  这次干预使得中国银行类股价格出现上升,刺激香港股市尾盘回升了1.6%。中央汇金购入的是这些银行在沪市的股份。宣布购股的消息时,沪市已经闭市,但香港的股市仍在交易。这些银行都同时在上海和香港上市。

  “By buying the heavyweight banking stocks, the government clearly sent a message that it wants to boost confidence in the market,” said Wu Dazhong, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Securities.

  申银万国证券分析师吴大中说,政府重仓买入银行类股,清楚地传达了想要提振市场信心的信号。

  Some are skeptical. “Unless market participants can get a more credible picture of balance-sheet risks...we expect share prices to remain quite volatile,” said Sarah Wu, an analyst with UBS, in a note issued before Monday's intervention. She said banks face a “credibility gap” between what they “are actually reporting and what the market is willing to believe.”

  但一些人对此持怀疑态度。瑞银(UBS )的分析师吴拳拳(Sarah Wu)在周一中央汇金购股之前称,除非市场参与者能够比较可信地了解到银行资产负债表的风险状况,否则按照我们的预测股价仍将波动。她说,就可信度而言,银行实际报告的程度和市场愿意相信的程度之间存在差距。

  Chinese Internet stocks, once darlings of U.S. investors, have cratered on new worries about complicated legal structures that don't give foreign investors an ownership stake in their Chinese assets. Baidu is off 27% since its peak in July. Sina Corp. (SINA) is down 40% from its peak in the same month.

  曾一度受到美国投资者青睐的中国的互联网股票也引发了新的忧虑,因为复杂的法律结构不允许将中国资产的所有权交给外国投资者。与7月份的股价峰值相比,百度的股价下跌了27%,新浪的股价下跌了40%。

  “Pessimism about China is close to being at an all-time high,” said Andy Mantel, chief executive of investment advisory Pacific Sun Advisors, who has been investing in the country for 20 years.

  投资咨询公司Pacific Sun Advisors的首席执行长曼特尔(Andy Mantel)说,针对中国的悲观情绪已经接近历史最高水平。该公司在中国从事投资已经有20年了。

我要纠错】 责任编辑:Nocy

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